PACKET: CANCELLED - BOCC Special Meeting - Speaker Forum re Housing at Mon, Jun 26, 06:00 PM

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Speaker Forum: Author Gregg Colburn on "Homelessness is a Housing Problem"

Topic Summary

This section presents materials for a speaker forum with author Gregg Colburn, summarizing his research thesis that homelessness is structurally caused by tight housing markets, particularly in high-cost, inelastic regions. His analysis argues that individual vulnerabilities (like poverty or substance use) are precipitating events rather than root causes, and that these vulnerabilities become acute only when coupled with restrictive housing supply. The presentation emphasizes that structural factors affecting cities, such as high rents and low vacancy rates, are stronger predictors of homelessness than individual or localized context factors.

Key Points

  • The presentation of the book, Homelessness Is a Housing Problem, focuses on cities and structural factors, not solely on individual people or characteristics.
  • The core thesis is that tight housing markets accentuate individual vulnerabilities, and these vulnerabilities serve as a sorting mechanism in such markets.
  • Conventional explanations for homelessness—such as job loss (24% of Seattle/King County 2019 survey respondents), eviction (15%), or alcohol/drug use (16%)—are posited as precipitating events, not root causes.
  • Rates of homelessness per capita vary widely across the U.S.; for example, Seattle has 4-5 times the per capita homelessness of Chicago.
  • Statistical analysis (using R² values) suggests weak correlation between homelessness rates and individual vulnerability factors across U.S. regions (2007-2019):
    • Poverty rate (Cities R² = 0.14; Counties R² = 0.17)
    • Serious mental illness rate (R² = 0.05)
    • Substance use disorder rate (R² = 0.06)
  • Statistical analysis suggests strong correlation between homelessness rates and housing market factors:
    • Median contract rent (Cities R² = 0.55; Counties R² = 0.24)
    • Rental vacancy rate (Cities R² = 0.27; Counties R² = 0.28)
  • Correlation between homelessness rates and local context factors is weak:
    • Average January temperature (R² = 0.008)
    • Density of Democratic governed areas does not explain why Democratic strongholds like Chicago don't have large homelessness issues.
  • Regions facing population growth coupled with low housing supply elasticity (driven by regulations and topography) are identified as highly problematic (e.g., Seattle, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Boston).
  • Addressing homelessness requires structural responses and two types of investments: (1) Operating investments for housing support, maintenance, and services; and (2) Capital investments to construct housing.
  • In areas where housing construction is difficult, changes to regulations and land use policy are necessary.

Financials

  • None specified. (Costs of proposed investments/construction are not quantified.)

Alternatives

  • The presentation implicitly contrasts the structural approach ("book about cities") with the conventional approach ("problem of the individual").
  • None specified.

Community Input

  • The discussion includes a Public Comment Period (10 min) for the joint meeting of the Intergovernmental Collaborative Group, but specific comments are not recorded in the packet materials.

Timeline

  • June 26, 2023: Date of the Special Meeting/Speaker Forum.
  • 2019: Year cited for Point-in-Time homelessness census data used for Seattle/King County causes of homelessness chart.
  • 2007–2019: Time period used for regression analyses comparing homelessness rates against various factors (poverty, rent, vacancy, temperature, etc.).
  • 2010–2019: Time period used for population change data in the population growth versus housing supply elasticity chart.

Next Steps

  • The Jefferson County Board of Commissioners meeting structure includes Welcome, Speaker Forum, Public Comment Period, Closing Remarks, and Adjournment.
  • The action requested of the governing bodies is to absorb the structural understanding of homelessness and potentially pursue policy changes in regulations and land use policy, and fund structural investments (Capital and Operating).

Sources

  • Gregg Colburn - Author, University of Washington Runstad Department of Real Estate
  • Clayton Page Aldern - Co-author (implied by text on book cover slide)
  • Saiz (2010) - Referenced for supply elasticity estimates.
  • Colburn & Aldern (2022) - Forthcoming figure source.
  • 2019 Point-in-Time homelessness census - Cited for Seattle/King County data.

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